运筹管理分析：使用Excel 英文版

1 Creative Operations Management Problem Solving:
A Decision-Making Approach
1
1.1 Managerial Decision Making
1
1.2 The Intelligence Phase of the Decision-Making Process
4
1.3 The Design Phase of the Decision-Making Process
10
1.4 The Choice Phase of the Decision-Making Process
14
1.5 An Example: Jackets versus Scrap at the UNEEDA Corporation
16
1.6 Concluding Comments
25
EXERCISES
25
2 Forecasting
27
2.1 Forecasting at the LastEver Corporation
28
2.2 Patterns of Data
33
2.3 Forecasting Approaches
42
2.4 Time Series Analysis
44
2.5 Concluding Comments
56
EXERCISES
56
3 Advanced Forecasting
59
3.1 Extrapolation from the Past
59
3.2 Regression Analysis
63
3.3 Cyclical and Seasonal Issues
71
3.4 Concluding Comments
81
EXERCISES
81
4 Planning Models
85
4.1 The Basic Planning Problem
85
4.2 The Basic Pricing Problem
87
4.3 Nonlinear Cost and Demand Functions
91
4.4 Preparing a Five-Year Plan
96
4.5 The Impact of Pricing
97
4.6 Concluding Comments
99
EXERCISES
100
5 Aggregate Planning and Learning Curves
103
5.1 The Nature of Aggregate Planning
103
5.2 Tradeoffs between Production and Inventory
103
5.3 Learning Curves
110
5.4 Concluding Comments
112
EXERCISES
113
6 Inventory
117
6.1 Why Hold Inventory
117
6.2 The Cost of Inventory
118
6.3 Cyclic Inventory Control
119
6.4 The Economic Order Quantity Model
123
6.5 What-If Scenarios
126
6.6 EOQ Model with Price Breaks
130
6.7 Economic Production Lot Size Model
132
6.8 Singlc-Period Models with Probabilistic Demand
136
6.9 Multi-Period Models with Probabilistic Demand
144
6.10 Concluding Comments
149
EXERCISES
150
7 Material Requirements Planning
153
7.1 Where MRP Fits In
153
7.2 Master Production Schedule
155
7.3 Bill of Materials
158
7.4 A Simple MRP Example
162
7.5 Rolling the MRP Schedule
163
7.6 Adding Allocated Inventory and Safety Stock
165
7.7 A More Complex MRP Example
166
7.8 Dealing with Multiple Products
168
7.9 Problems at Central Products Incorporated
171
7.10 Concluding Comments
176
EXERCISES
177
8 Quality: Monitoring Processes Using Charts
181
8.1 Monitoring Processes by Charts: Looking at the Data
181
8.2 Mean Charts
183
8.3 The Run Chart
186
8.4 The R Range Chart
186
8.5 Standard Deviation Charts
189
8.6 Using These Charts
189
8.7 Control Charts for Attribute Data
191
8.8 Other Quality Control Charts
194
8.9 Concluding Comments
197
EXERCISES
197
9 Machine Replacement and Maintenance
199
9.1 Machine Replacement Decisions
199
9.2 Machine Maintenance Decisions
206
9.3 Group Maintenance Decisions
211
9.4 Concluding Comments
214
EXERCISES
214
10 Project Management
217
10.1 The Project
217
I0.2 The Professor
219
10.3 Network Diagrams
219
10.4 Probabilities
224
10.5 Crunching
229
10.6 Concluding Comments
234
EXERCISES
235
11 Facility Location Decisions
237
11.1 Factor Weighting
237
11.2 Center-of-Gravity Method
240
11.3 Cost-Volume Analysis
242
11.4 Concluding Comments
244
EXERCISES
245
12 Risk Analysis and Simulation
247
12.1 Problems Where Uncertainty Is Important
247
12.2 Working the Cough Drop Problem
252
12.3 Generating Random Numbers
259
12.4 Break-Even Analysis under Uncertainty: A Case Study
269
12.5 The Farmer''s Problem: Dependent Random Variables
274
12.6 Concluding Comments
277
EXERCISES
277
13 Simulating Operations Management Processes
279
I3.1 The Network-Flow Production Process
280
13.2 The Matchstick Shuffling System
280
13.3 The Copy Machine Problem
288
13.4 Why Projects Are Late 297
13.5 The Single Station System
300
13.6 Concluding Comments
304
EXERCISES
304
14 Resource Allocation:
Applied Constraint Management
307
14.1 Making Mathematical Programming Relevant
for Operations Management
307
14.2 A Production Planning Support System
308
14.3 A Transportation Problem
317
14.4 Concluding Comments
321
EXERCISES
321
AppendixA Using Excel 323
Appendix B The Models 355
For Further Reading 367
Index 368