PART I
STUDY CHAPTERS
1 Introduction to Simulation 3
2 System Dynamics 23
3 Simulation Basics 47
4 Discrete-Event Simulation 71
5 Getting Started 103
6 Data Collection and Analysis 125
7 Model Building 171
8 Model Verification and Validation 203
9 Simulation Output Analysis 221
10 Comparing Systems 253
12 Modeling Manufacturing Systems 311
13 Modeling Material Handling Systems 335
14 Modeling Service Systems 357
PART II
LABS
1 Introduction to ProModel 6.0 377
2 ProModel World View, Meru, and Tutorial 383
3 Running a ProModel Simulation 403
4 Building Your First Model 409
5 ProModel's Output Module 437
6 Fitting Statistical Distributions to Input Data 455
7 Basic Modeling Concepts 465
8 Model Verification and Validation 509
9 Simulation Output Analysis 519
10 ComparingAIternative Systems 543
12 Intermediate Modeling Concepts 579
13 Material Handling Concepts 623
14 Additional Modeling Concepts 647
PART III
CASE STUDY ASSIGNMENTS
Case 1 Toy Airplane Manufacturing 683
Case 2 Mi Cazuela--Mexican Restaurant 683
Case 3 Jai Hind Cycles Inc. Plans New Production Facility 685
Case 4 The FSB Coin System 688
Case 5 Automated Warehousing at Athletic Shoe Company 690
Case 6 Concentrate Line at Florida Citrus Company 692
Case 7 Balancing the Production Line at Southern CaliforniaDoor Company 698
Case 8 Material Handling at California Steel Industries, Inc. 705
Appendix A Common Continuous and Discrete Distributions 709
Appendix B Critical Values for Student's t Distribution and Standard Normal Distribution 724
Appendix C F Distribution for α= 0.05 725
Appendix D Critical Values for Chi-Square Distribution 726
Index 727
PARI l
STuDY CHAPTERs
1 IntroduCtion to SimUIation 3
1．1 Introduction 3
1．2 What Is Simulation? 5
1．3 Whv Simulate? 6
1．4 Doing Simulation 8
1．5 Use of Simulation 10
1．6 When Simulation Is ApprOpriate 12
1．7 Qualmcations for Doing Simulation 1 4
1．8 Economic JUStmcation of Simulation l 5
1．9 SoUFCes Of Information on Simulation 19
1．10 How to Use This B00k 19
1．11 Sumnlarc 20
1．12 Review Ouestions 20
References 21
2 SyStem Dynamics 23
2．1 Introduction 23
2．2 Svstem Definition 24
2．3 Svstem Elements 25
2．3．1 Entities 26
2．3．2 Activities 26
2．3．3 Resources 26
2．3．4 Contr01s 27
2．4 System ComplexitV 27
2．4．1 Interdependencies 28
2．4．2 Variabilitv 29
2．5 Svstem Perforlnance Metrics 3 1
2．6 Svstem Variables 33
2．6．1 DecisiOn Variables 33
2．6．2 ResDonse Variables 34
2．6．3 State Vailables 34
2．7 System 0ptimization 34
2．8 The Systems Approach 36
2．8．1 Identifying Problems and Oladortunities 37
2．8．2 Developing AlteITlative S01utions 37
2．8．3 Evaluating the S01utions 38
2.8.4 Selecting and Implementing the Best Solution 38
2.9 Systems Analysis Techniques 38
2.9.1 Hand Calculations 40
2.9.2 Spreadsheets 40
2.9.3 Operations Research Techniques 41
2.9.4 Special Computerized Tools 44
2.10 Summary 45
2.11 Review Questions 45
References 46
3 Simulation Basics 47
3.1 Introduction 47
3.2 Types of Simulation 47
3.2.1 Static versus Dynamic Simulation 48
3.2.2 Stochastic versus Deterministic Simulation 48
3.3 Random Behavior 49
3.4 Simulating Random Behavior 50
3.4.1 Generating Random Numbers 50
3.4.2 Generating Random Variates 55
3.5 Simple Spreadsheet Simulation 59
3.5.1 Simulating Random Variates 60
3.5.2 Simulating Dynamic, Stochastic Systems 64
3.5.3 Simulation Replications and Output Analysis 66
3.6 Summary 67
3.7 Review Questions 68
References 69
4 Discrete-Event Simulation 71
4.1 Introduction 71
4.2 Discrete-Event versus Continuous Simulation 72
4.2.1 Differential Equations 73
4.2.2 Difference Equations 73
4.2.3 Combined Continuous and Discrete Simulation 74
Contents
4．3 How Discrete-Event SimulatiOn Works 74
4．4 A Maliual Discrete-Event SimulatiOn Examnle 77
4．4．1 SimuIation MOdel Assumntions 77
4．4．2 Setting Up the Simulation 78
4．4．3 Running the Simulation 80
4．4．4 CalCUlating Results 86
4．4．5 Issues 89
4．5 Commercial Simulation SOftware 89
4．5．1 MOdeling Interface Module
4．5．2 MOdel Processor 90
4．5．3 SimulatiOn Interface M0dule 90
4．5．4 Simulation Processor 9 1
4．5．5 AnimatiOn Processor 9 1
4．5．6 Output Processor 92
4．5．7 OutDut Interface Module 92
4．6 SimulatiOn Usin ProModel 93
4．6．1 Building a M0del 93
4．6．2 Running the SimulatiOil 93
4．6．3 output AnalVsis 94
4．7 Languages versus Simulators 97
4．8 Future Of SimulatiOn 98
4．9 Summarv 99
4．10 Review Ouestions 1 00
References 101
5 Gening Staned 103
5．1 IntrOdUCtion 103
5．2 PreliminarV Activities 1 04
5．2．1 Selecting an ApplicatiOn 104
5．2．2 Personnel Identification 105
5．2．3 SOftware Selection 1 06
5．3 Simulation Procedure 1 07
5．4 Defining the Obiective 109
5．5 Defining the Scope OfWork 112
5．5．1 Determining MOdel Scode 113
5．5．2 Deciding on Level Of Detail 113
5．5．3 Assigning Data—Gathering Resnonsibilities 11 4
5.5.4 Planning the Experimentation 115
5.5.5 Determining the Form of Results 115
5.6 Defining Project Requirements 116
5.7 Reasons Why Simulation Projects Fail 117
5.8 Summary 117
5.9 Review Questions 118
5.10 Case Studies 119
Case Study A: AST Computes Big Benefits
Using Simulation 119
Case Study B: Durham Regional Hospital
Saves $150,000 Annually Using Simulation Tools 122
References 124
6 Data Collection and Analysis 125
6.1 Introduction 125
6.2 Guidelines for Data Gathering 126
6.3 Determining Data Requirements 128
6.3.1 Structural Data 128
6.3.2 Operational Data 128
6.3.3 Numerical Data 129
6.3.4 Use of a Questionnaire 129
6.4 Identifying Data Sources 130
6.5 Collecting the Data 131
6.5.1 Defining the Entity Flow 131
6.5.2 Developing a Description of Operation 132
6.5.3 Defining Incidental Details and Refining Data Values 133
6.6 Making Assumptions 134
6.7 Statistical Analysis of Numerical Data 135
6.7.1 Tests for Independence 137
6.7.2 Tests for Identically Distributed Data 142
6.8 Distribution Fitting 144
6.8.1 Frequency Distributions 145
6.8.2 Theoretical Distributions 146
Contents
6．8．3 Fitting Theoretical Distrjbutions t0Data 152
6．9 Selecting a Distributioil in the Absence OfData 158
6．9．1 Most Likelv or Mean ValHe 158
6．9-2 Minimum alld Maximum Values 159
6．9．3 Minimum，Most Likely，and Maximum Values 159
6．1 0 Bounded versus Boundless Distributions 1 6 1
6．1 l MOdeling Discrete PrObabilities Using Continuous DistributiOns 1 6 1
6．1 2 Data DocumentatiOn and Approval 1 62
6．1 2．1 Data Documeiltation Example 162
6．13 Summary 165
6．1 4 Review Ouestioils 1 65
6．1 5 Case StudV：C01lecting and Documenting Data for Harrv’s Drjve—Through Restaurant 1 67
References 169
ModeI Building 1 71
7．1 IntrOductiOn 171
7．2 Converting a Conceptual MOdel tO a SimulatiOn MOdel 1 72
7．2．1 MOdeling Paradigms 1 72
7．2．2 MOdel Definition 174
7．3 Structural E1ements 1 75
7．3．1 Entities 175
7．3．2 Locations 177
7．3．3 Resources 1 79
7．3．4 Paths 181
7．4 0perational E1ements 1 8 1
7．4．1 Routings 181
7．4．2 EntitV 0perations 1 82
7．4．3 Entitv Arrivals 1 85
7．4．4 Entitv and Resource Movement 187
7．4．5 Accessin Locations and Resotlrces 1 88
7.4.6 Resource Scheduling 190
7.4.7 Downtimes and Repairs 191
7.4.8 Use of Programming Logic 195
7.5 Miscellaneous Modeling Issues 197
7.5.1 Modeling Rare Occurrences 197
7.5.2 Large-Scale Modeling 197
7.5.3 Cost Modeling 198
7.6 Summary 199
7.7 Review Questions 199
References 201
8 Model Verification and Validation 203
8.1 Introduction 203
8.2 Importance of Model Verification and Validation 204
8.2.1 Reasons for Neglect 204
8.2.2 Practices That Facilitate Verification and Validation 205
8.3 Model Verification 206
8.3.1 Preventive Measures 207
8.3.2 Establishing a Standard for Comparison 208
8.3.3 Verification Techniques 208
8.4 Model Validation 212
8.4.1 Determining Model Validity 213
8.4.2 Maintaining Validation 215
8.4.3 Validation Examples 215
8.5 Summary 219
8.6 Review Questions 220
References 220
9 Simulation Output Analysis 221
9.1 Introduction 221
9.2 Statistical Analysis of Simulation Output 222
9.2.1 Simulation Replications 223
9.2.2 Performance Estimation 224
Contents
9.2.3 Number of Replications (Sample Size) 228
9.2.4 Real-World Experiments versus Simulation Experiments 231
9.3 Statistical Issues with Simulation Output 232
9.4 Terminating and Nonterminating Simulations 235
9.4.1 Terminating Simulations 236
9.4.2 Nonterminating Simulations 236
9.5 Experimenting with Terminating Simulations 237
9.5.1 Selecting the Initial Model State 238
9.5.2 Selecting aTerminating Event 238
9.5.3 Determining the Number of Replications 238
9.6 Experimenting with Nonterminating Simulations 239
9.6.1 Determining the Warm-up Period 239
9.6.2 Obtaining Sample Observations 244
9.6.3 Determining Run Length 249
9.7 Summary 250
9.8 Review Questions 251
References 252
Comparing Systems 253
10.1 Introduction 253
10.2 Hypothesis Testing 254
10.3 Comparing Two Alternative System Designs 257
10.3.1 Welch Confidence Interval fo Comparing Two Systems 258
10.3.2 Paired-t Confidence Interval for Comparing Two Systems 260
10.3.3 Welch versus the Paired-t Confidence interval 262
10.4 Comparing More Than Two Alternative System Designs 263
10.4.1 The Bonferroni Approach for Comparing More Than Two Alternative Systems
10.4.2 Advanced Statistical Models for Comparing More Than Two Alternative Systems 268
10.4.3 Factorial Design and Optimization 274
10.5 Variance Reduction Techniques 276
10.5.1 Common Random Numbers 276
10.5.2 Example Use of Common Random Numbers 279
10.5.3 Why Common Random Numbers Work 281
10.6 Summary 281
10.7 Review Questions 282
References 283
12 Modeling Manufacturing Systems 311
12.1 Introduction 311
12.2 Characteristics of Manufacturing Systems 312
12.3 Manufacturing Terminology 313
12.4 Use of Simulation in Manufacturing 315
12.5 Applications of Simulation in Manufacturing 316
12.5.1 Methods Analysis 317
12.5.2 Plant Layout 318
12.5.3 Batch Sizing 320
12.5.4 Production Control 321
12.5.5 Inventory Control 324
12.5.6 Supply Chain Management 325
12.5.7 Production Scheduling 326
12.5.8 Real-Time Control 327
12.5.9 Emulation 327
12.6 Manufacturing Modeling Techniques 328
12.6.1 Modeling Machine Setup 328
12.6.2 Modeling Machine Load and Unload Time 328
12.6.3 Modeling Rework and Scrap 329
12.6.4 Modeling Transfer Machines 329
12.6.5 Continuous Process Systems 331
Contents
1 2．7 Summarv 332
12．8 Review Ouestions 332
References 332
1 3 Modeling MateriaI Handling SVStemS 335
l 3．1 IntrodtiCtion 335
13．2 Material Handling Principles 335
1 3．3 Material Handling Classification 336
1 3．4 Convevors 337
1 3．4．1 Convevor Tvpes 337
1 3．4．2 0perational CharactedstiCS 339
l 3．4．3 MOdeling ConveVor Svstems 340
1 3．4．4 M0deling Single-SectiOil Convevors 341
l 3．4．5 MOdeling Convevor Networks 342
l 3．5 IndUStrial Vehicles 342
1 3．5．1 MOdeling Industrial Vehicles 343
j 3．6 Automated StOrage/Retrieval Svstems 343
1 3．6．1 COIlfiguring an AS/RS 344
l 3．6．2 ModelingAS/RSs 346
13．7 Carousels 347
l 3．7．1 Carousel COil6guratiOIlS 347
l 3．7．2 MOdelingCarousels 347
13．8 Automatic Guided Vehicle Svstems 348
1 3．8．1 Designing an AGVS 349
1 3．8．2 Controllingan AGVS 350
1 3．8．3 MOdeling an AGVS 35l
1 3．9 Cranes and HOists 352
l 3．9．1 Crane Management 352
1 3．9．2 MOdeling Bridge Cranes 352
13．10 Robots 353
13．10．1 Robot Control 353
1 3．10．2 Modeling RObots 354
13．11 Summarv 355
l 3．1 2 Review Questions 355
References 356
1 4 Modeling Service Svstems 357
1 4．1 Introduciton 357
14.2 Characteristics of Service Systems 358
14.3 Performance Measures 359
14.4 Use of Simulation in Service Systems 360
14.5 Applications of Simulation in Service Industries 362
14.5.1 Process Design 362
14.5.2 Method Selection 362
14.5.3 System Layout 363
14.5.4 Staff Planning 363
14.5.5 Flow Control 364
14.6 Types of Service Systems 364
14.6.1 Service Factory 364
14.6.2 Pure Service Shop 365
14.6.3 Retail Service Store 365
14.6.4 Professional Service 366
14.6.5 Telephonic Service 366
14.6.6 Delivery Service 367
14.6.7 Transportation Service 367
14.7 Simulation Example: A Help Desk Operation 367
14.7.1 Background 368
14.7.2 Model Description 368
14.7.3 Results 371
14.8 Summary 372
14.9 Review Questions 372
References 372
PART II
LABS
1 Introduction to ProModel 6.0 377
L I.1 ProModel 6.0 Opening Screen 378
L I.2 Simulation in Decision Making 379
LI.2.1 Average Waiting Time 380
LI.2.2 Maximum Queue Length 281
L1.3 Exercises 382
2 ProModel World View, Menu,and Tutorial 383
L2.1 Introduction to the ProModel Menu 383
Contents
L2．1．1 The Title and the Menu Bars 383
L2．1．2 File Menu 384
L2．1．3 Edit Menu 384
L2．1．4 Build Menu 385
L2．1．5 Simulation Meilu 386
L2．1．6 0utput Meml 387
L2．1．7 Tools Menu 387
L2．1．8 View Menu 388
L2．1．9 WindOW Mentl 389
L2．1．10 HelDMenu 389
L2．2 Basic MOdeling
Elemellts 390
L2．2．1 Letatioils 390
L2．2．2 Entities 390
L2．2．3 Arrivals 39l
L2．2．4 Precessing 392
L2．3 Innovative Feattires in PrOMOdel 393
L2．3．1 L0gic Builder 393
L2．3．2 Dvnamic P10ts 395
L2．3．3 CUStomize 397
L2．3．4 Ouick Bar 397
L2．4 A Tutorial Oll PreM0del 6．0 399
L2．5 Exercises 400
3 Running a PrOModel SimuIatiOn 403
L3．1 ATM SVstem Specincatioils and PrOblem Statement 403
L3．1．1 Queuing Theory’s Answer tO theATM SVstem 404
L3．1．2 PreMOdel，s Answer t0 the ATM Svstem 404
L3．2 Exercises 406
4 BuiIding Y10ur First M0deI 409
L4．1 Building Your First Simulation MOdel 409
L4．2 Building the Bank Of USA ATM MOdel 416
L4．3 Locations，Entities，Precessing，and Arrivals 423
L4.4 Add Location 428
L4.5 Effect of Variability on Model Performance 430
L4.6 Blocking 431
L4.7 Exercises 433
5 ProModel's Output Module 437
L5.1 The Output Program Manager 437
L5.1.1 ReportView 439
L5.1.2 Category Chart 439
L5.1.3 State Chart 441
L5.1.4 Histogram and Time Plot 445
L5.1.5 Sheet Properties 448
L5.2 Classic View 448
L5.2.1 Time Series Plot 450
L5.2.2 TimeSeries Histogram. 450
L5.2.3 Location State Graphs 450
L5.3 Exercises 453
6 Fitting Statistical Distributions to Input Data 455
L6.1 An Introduction to Stat::Fit 455
L6.2 An Example Problem 458
L6.3 Auto::Fit Input Data 460
L6.4 Exercises 463
7 Basic Modeling Concepts 465
L7.1 Multiple Locations, Multiple Entity Types 465
L7.2 Multiple Parallel Identical Locations 468
L7.3 Routing Rules 471
L7.4 Variables 475
L7.5 Uncertainty in Routing--Track Defects And Rework 478
L7.6 Batching Multiple Entities of Similar TvPe 480
L7.6.1 Temporary Batching--GROUP/UNGROUP 480
L7.6.2 Permanent Batching--COMBINE 482
L7．7 Attaching one or More Entities tO Another Entitv 484
L7．7．1 PeFmanent Attachment--JOIN 484
L7．7．2 Temporarv Attachment—LOAD／UNLOAD 486
L7．8 Accumulation Of Entities 489
L7．9 Splitting of 0ne Entity into MultiDle Entities 490
L7．1 0 Decision Statements 492
L7．10．1 IF—THEN．ELSE Statement 492
L7．10．2 WHILE—Do Loop 494
L7．1 0．3 DO—WHILE Loop 495
L7．10．4 GOTO Statement 496
L7．1 1 PeriOdic Svstem Shutd．OWn 498
L7．12 Exercises 500
8 MOdeI VerifiCation and VaI idatiOn 509
L8．1 Verifcation of an Inspection and Rework Model 509
L8．2 Ver讯cation by Tracing the Simulation MOdel 511
L8．3 Debugging the Simulation MOdel 513
L8．3．1 Debugging ProM0del L0gic 514
L8．3．2 Basic Debugger 0ptions 5 1 4
L8．3．3 Advanced Debugger 0DtiOIlS 516
L8．4 Exercises 517
9 SimuIation Output Analysis 51 9
L9．1 Terminating versus NonteFminating Simulations 519
L9．2 Terminating Simulation 520
L9．2．1 Starting and Terminating Conditions (Run Length) 521
L9．2．2 Replications 522
L9.2.3 Required Number of Replications 526
L9.2.4 Simulation Output Assumptions 526
L9.3 Nonterminating Simulation 529
L9.3.1 Warm-up Time and Run Length 531
L9.3.2 Replications or Batch Intervals 535
L9.3.3 Required Batch Interval Length 538
L9.4 Exercises 540
10 Comparing Alternative Systems 543
L10.1 Overview of Statistical Methods 543
LI0.2 Three Alternative Systems 544
L10.3 Common Random Numbers 547
L10.4 BonferroniApproach with Paired-t Confidence Intervals 548
L10.5 Exercises 551
12 Intermediate Modeling Concepts 579
LI2.1 Attributes 579
L12.1.1 Using Attributes to Track Customer Types 580
L12.2 CycleTime 582
L12.3 Sorting, Inspecting a Sample, and Rework 583
L12.4 Merging a Submodel 584
L12.5 Preventive Maintenance and Machine Breakdowns 586
L12.5.1 Downtime Using MTBF and MTTR Data 587
L12.5.2 Downtime Using MTTF and MTTR Data 588
L12.6 Operator Shifts 591
L12.7 Job Shop 594
L12.8 Modeling Priorities 596
Contents
L 1 2．8．1 Selecting among Upstream Processes 596
L 1 2．8．2 Selecting Resources 598
L l 2．9 MOdeling a Pull System 602
L l 2．9．1 Pull Based on Downstream Demand 602
L 1 2．9．2 Kanban Svstem 603
L1 2．10 Trackjng Cost 607
L12．1 l Importing a Background 6l1
L 12．1 2 Denning and Displaying Views 612
L12．13 Creating a Model Package 615
L12．14 Exercises 617
Material HandIi ng Concepts 623
L13．1 Convevors 623
L1 3．1_l Multiple Coliveyors 624
L l 3．2 Resources，Path Networks．and Interfaces 625
L l 3．2．1 Manual Material Handljng Svstems 626
L13．2．2 Manual versus Automated Material Handing Systems 628
L13．2．3 Using 0perator for Processing 632
L13．2．4 Automated Manufacturing Cell 632
L1 3．3 Crane Svstems 636
L13．4 Exercises 638
Reference 645
AddItional MOdeIi naCOncepts 647
L 1 4．1 Balking Of CUStomers 647
L14．2 Macros and Runtime Interface 649
L 1 4．3 Generating ScenariOS 653
L14．4 External Files 655
L14．5 Arravs 658
L 1 4．6 Table Functions 663
L14．7 Subroutines 666
L14．8 Arrival Cvcles 670
L14.9 User Distributions 673
L14.10 Random Number Streams 675
L14.11 Exercises 677
PART III
CASE STUDY ASSIGNMENTS
Case 1 Toy Airplane Manufacturing 683
Case 2 Mi Cazuela--Mexican Restaurant 683
Case 3 Jai Hind Cycles Inc. Plans New Production Facility 685
Case 4 The FSB Coin System 688
Case 5 Automated Warehousing at Athletic Shoe Company 690
Case 6 Concentrate Line at Florida Citrus Company 692
Case 7 Balancing the Production Line at Southern California Door Company 698
Case 8 Material Handling at California Steel Industries, Inc. 705
Appendix A Common Continuous and Discrete Distributions 709
Appendix B Critical Values for Student'st Distribution and Standard Normal Distribution 724
Appendix C F Distribution for or=0.05 725
Appendix D Critical Values for Chi-Square Distribution 726
Index 727
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