第 10 课 民调与管治艺术

丘吉尔曾说：“没有比活在盖洛普的民意调查以及反复无常的民意狂飙下更加危险的事了，它可以夺走你的心跳及神智。”(Nothing is more dangerous...than to live in the temperamental atmosphere of a Gallup poll—always feeling one’s pulse and taking one’s temperature.)

美国前总统杜鲁门也曾说：“如果当年摩西在埃及进行民意调查，那么他还是否会领导犹太人出埃及？如果当年耶稣基督在以色列进行民意调查，他又会如何传教呢？如果马丁·路德当年也进行民意调查，那么是否还会有宗教改革运动呢？关键是领导正确与否，而非由一时的舆论及民调所决定。”(How far would Moses have gone if he had taken a poll in Egypt? What would Jesus Christ have preached if he had taken a poll in the land of Israel? What would have happened to the Reformation if Martin Luther had taken a poll? It isn’t polls or public opinion of the moment that counts. It’s right and wrong and leadership.)

民意调查从来都是具争议性的东西，有人对其趋之若鹜，亦有人对之不屑一顾。丘吉尔就完全看不起民意调查，但当然我们都记得，结果如此一位战争英雄，在大战结束后，便意外地被国民以选票摈了下台。

基辛格曾说：

“政治家的一项艰巨挑战，便是如何在自己以及选民的视野两者之间，取得一个交汇点。如果你较选民过于超前，太过高瞻远瞩，便得不到选民的明白和谅解，被他们遗弃；但相反，如果你与选民同步，太过目光短浅，则追不上日新月异的局势，早晚被时代所淘汰。”(A statesman’s job is to bridge the gap between his vision and his nation’s experience. If his vision gets too far out ahead of his country’s experience, he will lose his mandate. But if he hews too close to the conventional, he risks losing control over events.)